What can Virginia do to pull off a huge ranked win over Florida State Friday night?

So, we have made it, without a doubt many UVA fans have had this game circled on the calendar since the 2025 schedule was released. With NC State posing a challenge, everybody is ready to see what this Virginia team can do in a big test against a top 10 opponent in Florida State. This is more than just a game in September; however, a lot rides on it. Virginia is due for a program altering win, and this would be the one. Trying to compete at the top of the ACC, build Coach Elliott's coaching legacy, and making a statement on national TV are all things that the Hoos can accomplish with a win Friday night. The Noles bring in a Quarterback who UVA is very familiar with in Tommy Castellanos and a handful of tough athletes. So how can UVA pull the upset? Let's break it down.

Offense offense and more offense

The two schools come into the game with some of the highest rated offenses in the country. In fact, when it comes to yards per game, FSU leads the country with 628.7, and Virginia sits in 5th with 564.5. Both schools are towards the top in points per game as well with FSU sitting at the top with 58.0 and Virginia just outside the top 10 averaging 45.5 points per game. My point? The two schools are some of the best offenses in the country. This season Florida State has dropped 31 points on Alabama, 77 on East Texas A&M, and 66 last week on Kent State. With Tommy Castellanos under center, the Seminoles have looked very tough to stop. Castellanos is complimented by excellent weapons in Duce Robinson, Micahi Danzi, and former Tennessee Volunteer (If healthy) Squirrel White. So there will probably be a lot of points in this matchup.

On the side we are familiar with, Virginia has been balling lately. One takeaway I had from the Stanford game was the fact that I believe this Virginia offense could compete at an extremely high level, including against top ranked opponents. While the Cavaliers have only really been tested by NC State, they have proven a consistency and an incredible repertoire with so many different ways to attack. The offensive line has been as good as needed only giving up one sack so far this season which came against the Cardinal in which Coach Tony Elliott explained postgame "I told Chandler (Morris) it was his fault." North Texas transfer QB Chandler Morris has pretty much done everything perfect with the exception of the game losing interception against NC State back on week two. For the rare times the offensive line does get finessed through, Morris has demonstrated time and time again his ability to get out of the pocket and make a decision on the run, under pressure, and making something positive happen. Including taking a dump off when nothing is open deep, something a prior QB at Virginia would not do (Thou shall go unnamed).

The biggest blow Saturday night was an injury to UVA starting Center Brady Wilson, Coach Elliott updated his status. "He's day to day and hopefully it's right now it's just a calf strain. But he's day to day." With injuries all over the line, the trenches have basically been a game of musical chairs Coach Elliott explained in his weekly presser Tuesday morning. "I mean, now it's like it's just musical chairs at times. That next man up ready to roll but really proud of Drake and his ability to slide in at center and if Brady's not ready to go then you know Drake will be an option for us at center and then Wiggy (Kevin Wigenton) and Tyshawn (Wyatt) got to be ready to go at guard and Sipes (Ethan) getting closer you know he's more he's more of a day-to-day guy for us now and (David) Wohlabaugh is now up and running and so we plan to get him back here pretty soon. And then Wallace (Unamba) is now out of the brace and kind of progressing. So we hope in the next couple weeks that we'll get several of our offensive linemen back, but right now it's next man up mentality. Got to roll." Yeah, a lot of things going on with O-Line injuries, but Virginia is for sure adapting well, now they will be faced with a physical Seminole front seven. Florida State poses eight sacks through 3 games and has some physical pieces that can pose a threat to the Cavaliers. Coach Elliott explained his thoughts on the FSU front 7, "They’re fast, physical, and they’re deep. They roll guys on the defensive line, so they stay fresh. Their linebackers run well."

Something Virginia proved against Stanford that should have the Seminoles defense worried is the very wide range of ways the Cavaliers can score. The Hoos used a couple of direct snap plays to running backs to get in the endzone, trick plays, passing, running, they can attack from any angle. We also saw just how good this receiving core really is for Virginia (As we sort of knew already). Six different Virginia receivers have found the endzone so far this season with four receivers already having at least 100 yards. Trell Harris is public threat number one who was monstrous against Stanford with three touchdowns in the first quarter. He already has 321 yards on the year. We have seen the explosiveness in the slot from JMU transfer Cam Ross and Sophomore Kam Courtney who have combined for 346 yards and a touchdown. As well as the physicality of Purdue transfer Jahmal Edrine and tight ends Sage Ennis and Dakota Twitty. This is not to mention how well Virginia has run the ball between J'Mari Taylor, Xavier Brown, and Harrison Waylee (And Noah Vaughn but he is unfortunately out). My point is Virginia can attack from any angle successfully. OC Des Kitchings has had so much creativity, and I doubt it slows down against Florida State.

Defense will be an issue

Now let's get to the negative side... the defensive side of the ball. While Virginia has not given up a crazy number of points with an exception against NC State, they have not been tested much. When they have been tested against weaker opponents, they have shown flashes but have also shown some sketchy coverage as well. Virginia's defense is very prone to giving up the deep ball and have struggled immensely with tackling.

The Hoos gave up two big passes against William and Mary (One was dropped) and a couple of big chunk plays against Stanford. The biggest problem with that is those are two not very impressive offenses. UVA has played a lot of zone coverage, and the deep ends of those coverages have been blown multiple times. Against the Tribe, Christian Charles and Freshman Josiah Persinger blew their deep coverages. Last week against Stanford Ethan Minter and Caleb Hardy both got beat deep for touchdowns. This secondary is going to be challenged big time against Florida State and likely will not have their way.

FSU's main threat offensively is Quarterback Tommy Castellanos, who UVA is very familiar with. Castellanos has played UVA twice as a Boston College War Eagle. Boston College beat UVA at home the first time after UVA held a lead at the half. Then last season Virginia got the best of Castellanos at Scott Stadium and contained him and the War Eagles leading to what was a big victory at the time. Elliott commented on Castellanos, "Well, he's always been really good, very dynamic player. We learned that firsthand a couple years ago up at BC when we got a lead at half and then he just takes over in the second half. He's playing with a lot of confidence. He looks very decisive. Seems like he's really come grasp the offense and I know there was some connection, you know, maybe to the past, but he looks just really confident, really comfortable. He knows where to go with the ball. And then when he's in space, I mean, he just looks like he's playing a video game. He's making people miss. So, the biggest difference is you just see he looks very comfortable and playing with a ton of confidence and when he's able to do that he's as good as anybody in the country." Castellanos presents a similar game to NC State QB CJ Bailey who absolutely had his way against Virginia in week two. He is very quick and can launch the ball.

Florida State can also run the ball very well... with a LOT of different backs. FSU has involved 9 running backs so far this season, three of which have over 100 yards rushing. Elliott commented on FSU's running back depth, "The backs they got I mean they just keep them coming. I can't even keep straight how many running backs they got. They all look very similar. One cut guys. So it looks like the offensive line's creating a lot of space. The backs understand where the aiming points are. They can find the air in the defense and then they really challenge you with their speed sweeps and ability to get the ball on the perimeter." Virginia's run defense has not been terrible this season; Stanford was a good test as they like to run the ball a lot and the Hoos defense fared really well against it. However, against an FSU offensive line and a variety of different players to prepare for, FSU could definitely have their way.

One final thing to talk about, the pass rush. With it struggling early in the season, UVA's pass rush has progressively gotten better each week. Virginia got to Stanford's QB 5 times last week and got to William and Mary 3 times. The Hoos have brought four pass rushers a lot all season with a few times they have blitzed with five and six. Against Stanford, Virginia showed a couple times in 3rd down situations showing like they were bringing the house but dropped the linebackers back in coverage into a normal nickel zone. What if that was a set up though? Maybe Virginia elected to do that to surprise FSU actually blitzing from those looks. Who knows, the bottom line is Virginia needs to get pressure on Castellanos as if he has a lot of time he will take off or somebody will concede something deep.

So, how can Virginia win this football game

Contain Castellanos - Very similar situation to NC State QB CJ Bailey. Do not let him get into open space, do not give him time, or he will kill the Cavaliers all game long. Virginia will not be able to stop him, but they need to have a bend don't break mentality.

Get FSU behind the chains - It is important for the Virginia defense to show up on first and second down. If the defensive line can play how they have against other opponents, they might be able to do that. Tackles for losses on first down runs, getting to Castellanos and forcing a throw away or even bringing him down, anything to get FSU behind schedule offensively.

Keep up with FSU's scoring - There is no sugar coating it, Florida State is going to score a lot. If this Virginia offense can score like they have been, they can have a shot at keeping up with the Noles. The Hoos cannot afford turnovers, early 3 and outs, or missed opportunities. If any of that happens early, Virginia will be down multiple possessions before you can say Wahoo-WA.

Final Word

Like I have mentioned a couple of times, there is no doubt that Florida State will have their way offensively against Virginia. However, if Virginia can keep up offensively and also produce high level numbers, they one hundred percent have a shot of pulling an upset Friday night. With a 30th anniversary of the 1995 upset, throwback uniforms, ACC contention on the line, there is a lot of things Virginia has going on to be excited about Friday night. The last stage is the fans showing up. With lackluster crowds in the previous couple home games, Virginia fans need to show up big and loud Friday night. Virginia has a big opportunity on the national stage, let's see if they are built for it!