Week 11 – Famous in Our Own Minds Pick’em

Week 10 was another polar plunge for the pick gods of The Cavalier Connection. It was so cold that Jack—a man who once picked against a team because he didn’t like their mascot’s haircut—won the week at 2-1. Meanwhile Jeff and Jay limped home at 1-2, again, which is starting to feel less like a coincidence and more like a lifestyle.

As a pod, we sit at a glacial 39-51. That’s right. If betting were golf, we’d be champions.

But we keep doing this anyway because… well… we’re not quitters, we’re just very consistent losers.

The standings:

1. Jay: 15-15 (The definition of mid.)

2. Jeff: 13-17 (Hanging around like that one fruitcake that won’t get thrown away.)

3. Jack: 11-19 (Still alive, still swinging, still confusing Vegas in ways science can’t explain.)
   
   

But you’re here for the picks, so let’s get into them.

JAY’S PICKS

Miami -2.5 (in Spain)

Jay is so locked in on the Commanders–Dolphins game he basically turned it into a two-for-one special.

He thinks Miami might personally score enough points to win by 20 and hit the over. With Achane and Waddle healthy, Jay expects Spain to experience its first Category 5 NFL offense.

Dan Quinn taking over Washington’s defense will matter about as much as an umbrella in a hurricane.

Over 47.5 – Same Game

Washington will score just enough to turn this into a track meet. Jay sees this thing getting into the 50s with ease.

Chargers at Jaguars – Over 43.5

Jay respectfully reminds everyone that Trevor Lawrence is struggling, but it won’t matter because Justin Herbert should score at will.

The Jags will add their traditional garbage-time points—football’s version of tipping 8% and calling it generous—to get us over the total.

JEFF’S PICKS

Bengals +5.5 at Steelers

Jeff is riding with 40-year-old Joe Flacco, who still slings the ball like he’s trying to win a free steak at a throwing competition.

Jeff says Flacco will target Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase about 15 times each. That alone should keep Cincinnati in range against a Steelers offense that treats the red zone like a restricted area.

Jags +3 vs Chargers

Jeff believes Jacksonville gets back to the version of themselves that beat the Chiefs—not the version that blew a 19-point 4th-quarter lead to Davis Mills, the politest quarterback in the league.

Home field gives them just enough juice to show up.

Detroit +2.5 at Philly

Game of the week. Jeff is taking Dan Campbell + points, which is basically like combining pre-workout with espresso.

He thinks the Lions want to send a message in a potential NFC Championship preview.

JACK’S PICKS

Bears +2.5 vs Vikings

Jack is all-in on the Bears at home.

He’s not buying JJ McCarthy, doesn’t trust Minnesota on the road, and Chicago is actually playing well—something Jack is treating like spotting a UFO: exciting but suspicious.

Panthers at Falcons – Over 42.5

In a dome.

Both teams coming off ugly offensive showings.

Both teams love running the ball until everyone is bored.

Jack notes this is a rematch of Week 3 when the Panthers embarrassed Atlanta 30-0. He thinks both teams bounce back offensively and push this into the mid-40s.

49ers -2.5 at Cardinals

Brock Purdy is back, so Jack is firing up George Kittle in every fantasy lineup.

Arizona got drilled by Seattle last week, and Marvin Harrison Jr. is out after an appendectomy.

Jack’s summary:

• Appendicitis? Bad.

• Facing the Niners without your star WR? Worse.

• Expecting a bounce-back? No chance.
  Niners cruise.
  
  

FINAL THOUGHTS

We’re ice cold. We know it.

But like a kicker down 28 attempting a meaningless field goal “for pride,” we keep showing up.

Do whatever you want with these picks.

Fade us, follow us, frame them, set them on fire—dealer’s choice.