Virginia Football 2025: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

The Bull Case (Buy)

8–9 wins, high-end bowl, upward trajectory

• Softest schedule in years: UVA avoids several ACC heavyweights and gets very winnable road trips, including Cal, making 8+ wins realistic.

• Roster talent upgrade: Chandler Morris provides stability at QB, and the most talented roster of Elliott’s era — transfers included — finally meshes.

• Close-game flips: UVA led in 9 of 12 games last year but couldn’t close. Veteran leadership and improved execution in the 4th quarter could swing those outcomes.

• Rivalry breakthrough: A season-ending win over Virginia Tech wouldn’t just be sweet — it could lock in a high-end bowl bid.
  
  How they get there:

• Non-Conference: 3–1 or 4–0 (beat Coastal and W&M, possibly NC State and/or Washington State)

• ACC: 5–3 (hold serve at home vs Stanford, Wake, VT + win at Cal, steal one on the road at Louisville/UNC/Duke)
  
  

The Hold Case (Neutral)

6–7 wins, bowl eligible, but uninspiring

• Win the layups, little more: UVA takes care of business in the obvious games but drops at least one swing matchup like VT or Cal.

• Roster still incomplete: Transfers contribute but aren’t game-changers, and chemistry issues keep the offense from fully clicking.

• Red zone woes linger: Field goals instead of touchdowns remain a theme, stalling upset chances and costing momentum in close games.
  
  How they get there:

• Non-Conference: 2–2 or 3–1 (split Washington State/NC State)

• ACC: 3–5 or 4–4 (Stanford, Wake, Cal, but struggle to win tough roaders or VT)
  
  

The Bear Case (Sell)

4–5 wins, stalled growth, pressure rising

• Offense stays stuck: QB play and the line fail to progress, and the red zone remains a black hole.

• Missed chances: Losses to winnable opponents like Cal, Stanford, or Wake doom the season and lead to losses in rivalry games with UNC and VT.

• Same late-game story: UVA again collapses in the 4th quarter, with close losses erasing early leads.
  
  How they get there:

• Non-Conference: 1-3 or 2-2 (maybe only W&M)

• ACC: 2-6 or 3-5 (beat Wake and Stanford but little else)
  

Stock Outlook:

• Price Target: 6.5 wins

• Upside: 9 wins (Buy if they finish games and beat VT)

• Downside: 4 wins (Sell if the offense sputters and close-game issues linger)
  
  Virginia is a Hold with upside — a program with more talent than in any other Elliott year and the easiest Power-4 schedule they’ll see, but still needing to prove they can execute in crunch time and kick extra points instead of field goals. Beat Cal on the road, take care of business at home, and finally get over the Virginia Tech hump, and this stock becomes a clear Buy. Go Hoos!