Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover: Week 1

They say good teams win — but great teams cover. And this week, Virginia fans found themselves celebrating both a football victory and a last-second Vegas miracle.

UVA traveled to Berkeley as a 5.5-point favorite against Cal, and things looked relatively comfortable late — until the Hoos needed one final play to make bettors smile. Up 24–21 with less than a minute left, linebacker Kam Robinson jumped a pass for a 35-yard pick-six to seal a 31–21 win. The Cavaliers moved to 8–1 on the season and 6–3 against the spread (ATS).

If you’re wondering how Vegas keeps it so tight, look no further than the total: 52.5. That last Robinson touchdown nearly pushed the game over, but the under barely survived, crossing the finish line like a marathoner collapsing on the tape. Vegas magic strikes again.

Looking Ahead: Wake Forest at UVA (-6.5, Total 49.5)

Saturday night lights return to Scott Stadium as Virginia hosts Wake Forest, currently a 6.5-point favorite with a total set at 49.5. On paper, that number feels light — Florida State just embarrassed Wake 42–7 — but then again, the Demon Deacons somehow beat SMU 13–12 the week before. That’s the type of inconsistency that gives oddsmakers gray hair.

Virginia has been one of the nation’s better covering teams this fall, and the Hoos have found a rhythm on both sides of the ball. The defense, led by John Rudzinski’s opportunistic unit, has forced timely turnovers in nearly every win. Combine that with a balanced offense that’s rediscovered its efficiency, and you’ve got a recipe for another profitable night in Charlottesville.

Jay’s Pick: UVA -6.5 and the Under 49.5.

Prediction: Virginia 31, Wake Forest 17.

On the Hardwood

The Ryan Odom era in UVA basketball tipped off in style Monday night with an 87–53 rout of Rider. The Hoos easily covered the -26.5 spread while staying under the 143.5 total, thanks to a defense that looked much sharper than expected for an opening night.

Next up? North Carolina Central, fresh off giving up 114 points to NC State in a 48-point loss. The line hadn’t been released at press time, but I’ll be tempted to take both a UVA cover and the over — no matter how high Vegas sets it.

Recap

Between Kam Robinson’s last-minute heroics and the basketball team’s first dominant showing under Odom, it was a great week to be a Wahoo — and an even better one to be a Wahoo who likes to cover.

Virginia football sits at 6–3 ATS, one of the more consistent performers in the ACC for bettors. Meanwhile, UVA hoops looks primed to reward backers early in the year as Odom’s offense opens things up and the defense maintains that trademark edge.

As we kick off this new weekly series, remember the golden rule: Good teams win. Great teams cover.

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